A PEEK AHEAD TO 2012 SENATE RACES.

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Althought 2010 is shaping up as a bad year for the Democrats, 2012 could possibly be EVEN WORSE. Sen. Dems who are NOT on the ballot in 2010 are watching what happens to their colleagues very closely! Here are some, probably way too early, thoughts on what we may see in 2012 in the Senate:

Democrats:
Feinstein-California. Probably safe. GOP has a shot if Fiorina wins AND if Feinstein retires.
Carper-Delaware. Safe. Perhaps if Christine O’Donnell gets beat by a smidgen she can try again, but Carper would be tougher than Coons.
Nelson-Florida. In big trouble, particularly if Rubio wins this year. Would Jeb Bush jump in for this seat? Is he tea party enough?
Akaka-Hawaii. Safe. He’s getting old and might retire. Still probably a safe seat for the Dems.
Cardin-Maryland. Vulnerable. Has an edge because of heavy Democratic Party voter registration in state. Will GOP Chair Mike Steele take a shot? Or if Bob Ehrlich falls short this year…
Stabenow-Michigan. Very vulnerable. She’s weak and Michigan is in turmoil, with the economy getting worse. Numerous possible GOP challengers wait in the wings.
Klobuchar-Minnesota. Very vulnerable. Obvious GOP challenger would be Norm Coleman who had election stolen from him last year by Al Franken.
McCaskill-Missouri. Very vulnerable. If she runs again in 2012 she loses.
Tester-Montana. Very vulnerable. Narrowly elected in 2006 BEFORE he voted for most of the Obama agenda. If the lone Montana House member, Republican Dennis Rehberg, runs he’ll not only test Tester, he’ll de-Tester Montana.
Nelson-Nebraska. Politically dead. No chance to be reelected and will almost certainly retire.
Menendez-New Jersey. Vulnerable. Faced a stiff challenge in 2006 from Tom Kean Jr. and will attract a tough challenger again. Chris Christie has shown the path to victory in NJ. But can others replicate it?
Bingaman-New Mexico. Safe. He’s been in since 1982. GOP can hope for retirement as their best shot.
Conrad-North Dakota. Very vulnerable. Carrying the water for Obama on Stimulus and Obamacare are very unpopular pieces of baggage to carry in ND. If Earl Pomeroy goes down in House this year Conrad is in even bigger trouble.
Brown-Ohio. Very vulnerable. Arguably the most liberal Senator in the country in a state that appears to be returning to the red column in both the Senate and Governor’s races this year.
Casey-Pennsylvania. Very vulnerable with Republicans running strong in the state in both Senate and Governor’s races this year. Bob Casey has loyally backed the Obama agenda despite his claims to be a pro-life moderate. His Obamacare and stimulus votes will come back to haunt him.
Whitehouse-Rhode Island. Safe.
Webb-Virginia. Vulnerable. He won by around 10,000 votes in 2006 and there are a number of Republicans itching to take him on. Again, his votes for Obamacare and Stimulus, etc. will haunt him.
West Virginia. If Dem Gov. Manchin wins it is Safe for the Dems; but if GOP nominee Raes pulls it off it will be a toss up for the GOP to keep it.
Cantwell-Washington. Somewhat vulnerable. Won in 2000 by a little over 2,000 votes. If Patty Murray gets knocked out this year by Dino Rossi then the GOP will have an easier recruiting job.
Kohl-Wisconsin. Safe. He is and has been irrelevant in the Senate. May retire after four terms. Senator Paul Ryan? If Feingold loses this seat is a better target, but Wisconsin always seems to be blue in Presidential years.

Independents:
Lieberman-Conn. Probably Safe. At least this time he doesn’t have to worry about a Primary, right? Can he win another three way battle?
Sanders-Vermont. Safe. Those people are crazy.

Republicans:
Kyl-Arizona. Safe
Lugar-Indiana. Safe. Retirement prospect?
Snowe-Maine. Safe. Those people are almost as crazy as the Vermonters.
Brown-Massachusetts. Vulnerable. It is STILL Massachusetts, and it will be a Presidential year so the Dems will mount a fierce challenge to Brown.
Wicker-Miss. Safe.
Ensign-Nevada. Vulnerable. He’ll probably retire rather than seek reelection after his sex scandal, which opens the door to several good GOP prospects. If Angle wins look for another tea party candidate to emerge as the GOP nominee.
Corker-Tennessee. Safe. May have a tea party challenge, but will win again.
Hutchinson-Texas. Safe but probably retiring to run for Governor again in 2014. Will face tea party challenge if she doesn’t retire.
Hatch-Utah. Safe, though potentially vulnerable to a tea party challenge.
Barasso-Wyoming. Safe.